105
FXUS64 KBMX 041800
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SLIDING
EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. WITH RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE, AND LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS, I
AM INCLINED TO GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN MORE ALIGNED WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS, ALLOWING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
COVERAGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING. THE LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE, WHICH TAKES INTO MODEL CORRECTION, HAS LOWERED A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER THE LAST RUN. I WOULD REALLY EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE ALSO UP IN THE
AIR IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA, BEFORE STALLING AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHEAST DRY ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT, WILL KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY WORKS INTO
THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. I WOULD EXPECT ANY ONGOING STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TO
DISSIPATE TO MAINLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY.
WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, LOOK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PARTICULARY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LESS COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
FINALLY WASHES OUT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVE BACK IN. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD `THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY POTENTIALLY BE STRONGER AND COULD PRESENT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DEFINITELY
WORTH KEEPING OUR EYE ON IT AS WE MOVE CLOSER.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY BEEN ACHIEVED AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREACHED. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 9Z AT ALL SITES.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH BY 9Z AND
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 14Z, BEFORE ERODING BY 15 TO 16Z
ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIN RHS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TO OUR WEST AND STALLS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THAT MAY BE CLOSE
TO TYING OR BREAKING WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM
REACHING THE MAX POTENTIAL.
MARCH 4:
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KEET: 81/2000
MARCH 9:
KEET: 80/2016
KMGM: 85/1974
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 40
ANNISTON 56 81 59 81 / 0 10 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 59 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 50
TUSCALOOSA 59 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 50
CALERA 57 83 60 81 / 0 10 10 50
AUBURN 58 80 62 80 / 0 10 10 40
MONTGOMERY 58 82 61 81 / 0 10 10 50
TROY 57 81 60 81 / 0 20 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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