948
FXUS64 KBMX 050358
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
WARM WEATHER IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR EAST, BRINGING IN THE WARMER
AIR MASS FROM THE GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS.
AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, TEMPS WILL RUN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWING/STALLING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGH (70-80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AL. MVFR CIGS BUILD
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 15Z. THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT MGM AND AUO DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY DURING THOSE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THAT MAY BE CLOSE
TO TYING OR BREAKING WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM
REACHING THE MAX POTENTIAL.
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KEET: 81/2000
MARCH 9:
KEET: 80/2016
KMGM: 85/1974
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 50
ANNISTON 56 81 60 82 / 0 10 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 58 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 50
TUSCALOOSA 58 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 50
CALERA 56 83 60 82 / 0 10 10 60
AUBURN 58 80 62 81 / 0 10 10 50
MONTGOMERY 57 83 62 81 / 0 10 10 50
TROY 56 83 61 83 / 0 20 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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