773
FXUS64 KBMX 052325
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
525 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE NORTH FROM THE
GULF ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMER TO THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER, NOT MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL
AFTER NOON AND SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS
ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AS
THE EURO TAKES THE FRONT TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND THE GFS STAYS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS DOWN TO I-85 ACCORDING TO SPC. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS AREA. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES WE SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
BEGINS TO LAYOVER AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST INPUT TO
THIS WOULD BE THE STRENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES INTO ALABAMA.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THE THREAT
REMAINS BELOW THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR SPC TO DESIGNATE AN AREA,
BUT AS TIMING AND PROXIMITY GETS CLOSER, WE EXPECT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
BUSY TAF PERIOD COMING UP WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06-09Z, BUT WILL
BEGIN DROPPING TO MVFR, THEN QUICKLY TO IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT, INCREASING BACK TO VFR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THERE'S AROUND A 20-30% OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN
12-15Z AT ALL SITES.
THEN, LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND
STALLS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AN OVERALL WET PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THAT MAY BE CLOSE
TO TYING OR BREAKING WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM
REACHING THE MAX POTENTIAL.
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KEET: 81/2000
MARCH 9:
KEET: 80/2016
KMGM: 85/1974
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 82 60 82 / 0 40 30 50
ANNISTON 59 82 61 82 / 0 40 30 40
BIRMINGHAM 61 81 63 82 / 0 50 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 61 81 63 81 / 0 50 10 60
CALERA 60 82 61 82 / 0 50 20 50
AUBURN 61 80 62 82 / 10 40 20 30
MONTGOMERY 61 82 62 84 / 10 50 10 30
TROY 61 82 61 84 / 10 50 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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