946
FXUS64 KBMX 060546
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 40-50% AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EVEN HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
FRONT SLOWS AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER SUNDAY
COMPARED TO SATURDAY, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA, EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY DRIVE INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT TIMING
THEM OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE IS DIFFICULT.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THIS HAS
TRENDED LATER WITH EACH RUN. WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ADVECTION FOG
WHICH IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. EXPECT IFR
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AROUND 09-11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
MIX OUT. SCATTERED TSRA IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SO
DID INCLUDE PROB30S FOR THAT POTENTIAL FROM 18-00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE REGION, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY ACROSS THE AREA
OR JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 82 60 81 / 0 40 30 50
ANNISTON 60 82 61 81 / 0 50 30 50
BIRMINGHAM 61 82 64 80 / 0 50 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 60 83 63 81 / 0 40 10 70
CALERA 60 83 62 82 / 0 50 20 60
AUBURN 62 81 62 82 / 10 50 30 30
MONTGOMERY 61 84 62 84 / 10 50 20 40
TROY 60 83 62 84 / 10 40 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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