346
FXUS64 KBMX 070426
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE OUR NEXT MAIN
TROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE HAS STILL SHOWN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, BUT IT
WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WE
GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL
THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY STAYING AROUND TCL, MGM,
AND TOI BEFORE THE STORMS DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 09-10Z BEFORE CIGS DROP TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
CIGS DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY IN THE 12-15Z RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW RIGHT NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. CIGS IMPROVE AFTER
15Z, BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 18Z FOR ALL SITES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AL. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WE SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN/STORMS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 81 59 73 / 30 60 90 80
ANNISTON 61 82 61 73 / 30 40 90 80
BIRMINGHAM 63 79 62 73 / 30 70 90 80
TUSCALOOSA 63 81 62 74 / 30 70 90 80
CALERA 61 82 61 75 / 30 60 90 90
AUBURN 63 82 63 73 / 30 30 50 80
MONTGOMERY 61 84 64 73 / 20 30 50 80
TROY 60 85 62 75 / 10 20 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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