425
FXUS64 KBMX 070606
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE OUR NEXT MAIN
TROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE HAS STILL SHOWN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, BUT IT
WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WE
GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MOST SITES ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TCL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS C AL FROM THE S BETWEEN 9-12Z.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW VIS AS WELL, BUT THE MAIN STORY
SHOULD BE THE STRATUS. DURING THE MORNING THIS CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS LOW STRATUS ERODES WITH MIXING TO VFR BETWEEN
14-18Z FROM SE TO NW. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO C
AL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN THE MIX.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AL. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WE SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN/STORMS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 81 59 73 / 30 60 90 80
ANNISTON 61 82 61 73 / 30 40 90 80
BIRMINGHAM 63 79 62 73 / 30 70 90 80
TUSCALOOSA 63 81 62 74 / 30 70 90 80
CALERA 61 82 61 75 / 30 60 90 90
AUBURN 63 82 63 73 / 30 30 50 80
MONTGOMERY 61 84 64 73 / 20 30 50 80
TROY 60 85 62 75 / 10 20 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...08
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