253
FXUS64 KBMX 081139
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
THREATS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS
A FEW TORNADOES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SO THE MAIN OUTFLOW HAS EXITED THE COASTLINE, SO WE ARE SEEING
SOME REDUCTION IN RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME THOUGH A MESO-LOW HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN. THIS LOW HAS INCREASED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, THERE
STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM, UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPED IS ALSO TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE
MESO-LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST TO EVEN SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS WE BEGIN
TO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE THE LOW PUSHES EAST. THEREFORE CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS THE RAIN AND STORMS
FROM EARLIER PRETTY MUCH SCOURED OUT THE INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY: THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT ACTUALLY IMPACTS THE AREA
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT LEVELS AROUND MARGINAL AT BEST. SEVERAL OF
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AT ALL ON MONDAY, SO AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT WORTH
MENTIONING DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF LARGE HAIL IF THE STORMS DO WIND
UP MATERIALIZING.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
TODAY: FOLLOWING A WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS, ONGOING AT 12 AM SUNDAY, A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY. THEN,
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY FRONT SHOULD
PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, FROM AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY: A LOW-AMPLITUDE, MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SCOOT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, TRIGGERING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD
TO OUR AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON, WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A
DRY SLOT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL OFFER A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ULTIMATELY
ENDS UP AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME MODELS SHOWS THE FOCUS
OCCURRING JUST TO OUR WEST WHILE OTHERS INVOLVE US IN THE ACTION
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.
TUESDAY: THERE'S NOT A WHOLE LOT FOR THIS DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AS SUCH, DESPITE VARIABLE
CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE AN UPWARD BUMP WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW 80S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT'S BETWEEN
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL NUMBERS.
WEDNESDAY: SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE, SHARP
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP, DRIVING A LONG LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
PARAMETER SPACE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL
LINE, THOUGH SOME PRECEDING THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL,
WITH THREATS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SETUP.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE COLDEST
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORECAST
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE
CARDS BARRING ANY CHANGES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF TCL. FOR TCL WE
ARE NOW SEEING IFR CLOUDS. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO BHM AND EET AND BRIEFLY
AT MGM AND AUO. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN SOME
BRIEF VFR AROUND SUNSET TO 3/6Z. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOP AFTER 6Z. LOWEST VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WONT BE
UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN
AND PROMOTE LOW AFTERNOON MINRHS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY). WINDS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR MONDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS, ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AND SEASONABLY WARM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 57 79 58 / 70 10 30 60
ANNISTON 72 58 78 60 / 80 20 30 60
BIRMINGHAM 73 60 78 63 / 70 20 50 60
TUSCALOOSA 75 58 79 62 / 60 10 50 50
CALERA 75 58 79 60 / 80 20 50 60
AUBURN 72 60 78 61 / 90 40 30 40
MONTGOMERY 75 61 80 63 / 90 30 50 40
TROY 75 62 81 63 / 90 30 40 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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