547
FXUS64 KBMX 081818
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
THREATS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS
A FEW TORNADOES.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A DREARY DAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DAYLIGHT
TIME. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA,
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EXTENT OF THE VISIBILITIES AND MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR MONDAY, SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AT ALL ON MONDAY, SO AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT WORTH MENTIONING DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF
LARGE HAIL IF THE STORMS DO WIND UP MATERIALIZING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE,
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ON TOP OF OUR AREA, DRIVING A LONG LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE EVOLUTION, THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE, THOUGH SOME
PRECEDING THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE COLDEST
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORECAST
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE
CARDS BARRING ANY CHANGES.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CEILINGS ARE BEING STUBBORN TO LIFT AS A MESO-LOW SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED AT
TAF SITES FOR THE DAY. ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA, WE
WILL SEE A BRIEF INCREASE TO HIGH END MVFR/VF FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE CEILING DROP BACK DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NIGHT AS
SEVERAL MODELS ARE DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 1/2 A MILE AT TIMES RIGHT
AT SUNSET. ANY RAIN ON MONDAY SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TIME
FRAME, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WONT BE
UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN
AND PROMOTE LOW AFTERNOON MINRHS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY). WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AND SEASONABLY
WARM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 79 59 79 / 10 20 70 30
ANNISTON 57 79 61 80 / 20 20 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 59 78 63 80 / 10 40 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 56 79 63 82 / 10 60 60 10
CALERA 57 79 62 82 / 10 40 60 10
AUBURN 61 79 63 81 / 20 30 50 10
MONTGOMERY 62 80 63 83 / 20 50 40 10
TROY 62 80 63 83 / 20 40 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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