178
FXUS64 KBMX 082346
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- FOG, AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, MAY GREATLY
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TONIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A DREARY DAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DAYLIGHT
TIME. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA,
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EXTENT OF THE VISIBILITIES AND MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR MONDAY, SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AT ALL ON MONDAY, SO AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT WORTH MENTIONING DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF
LARGE HAIL IF THE STORMS DO WIND UP MATERIALIZING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE,
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ON TOP OF OUR AREA, DRIVING A LONG LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE EVOLUTION, THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE, THOUGH SOME
PRECEDING THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL, WITH THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE COLDEST
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORECAST
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE
CARDS BARRING ANY CHANGES.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS OF 23:30Z. COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ONGOING MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL
CRASH BY OR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, BECOMING LIFR. VISIBILITY IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BECOME GREATLY REDUCED, AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE.
IMPROVEMENT IS PROJECTED AROUND 15Z MONDAY, BECOMING MVFR, WITH A
MVFR/VFR MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOME CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS
FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WONT BE
UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN
AND PROMOTE LOW AFTERNOON MINRHS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY). WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AND SEASONABLY
WARM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 79 59 79 / 10 20 70 30
ANNISTON 57 79 61 80 / 20 20 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 59 78 63 80 / 10 40 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 56 79 63 82 / 10 60 60 10
CALERA 57 79 62 82 / 10 40 60 10
AUBURN 61 79 63 81 / 20 30 50 10
MONTGOMERY 62 80 63 83 / 20 50 40 10
TROY 62 80 63 83 / 20 40 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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