365
FXUS64 KBMX 090604
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. FOG, AND
LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL GREATLY RESTRICT
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THREATS INCLUDING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY'S SEVERE RISK: A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, DECENT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE
HREF, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR AREA
WITHIN A MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. THE SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DOESN'T LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR
GENERATING LOCALIZED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. INSTEAD, OUR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT THE APPROACHING BATCH OF MATURED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THAT ACTIVITY BEING OUR MAIN SHOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (AS LARGE AS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER) TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
QUICK-MOVING, HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS, THOUGH ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE SEVERE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BEING WORKED OVER.
TUESDAY: THERE'S NOT A WHOLE LOT FOR THIS DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AS SUCH, DESPITE VARIABLE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE AN UPWARD BUMP WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
80S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT'S BETWEEN 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL NUMBERS. THE RIDGE ISN'T A TOTAL SQUASHER,
THOUGH, SO ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE RISK: SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE, SHARP TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP, DRIVING A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL HAVE SHOWN A SLOWER TREND IN TERMS OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH IT LEANING TOWARD AN (ALMOST)
EXCLUSIVELY NIGHTTIME EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHEAR PROFILES
AND WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT, INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. I'M NOT TOO SOLD
ON THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING.
LATE WEEK COOLDOWN: A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY'S
STORM SYSTEM. THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING
INTO THE 30S FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FORECAST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE CARDS
BARRING ANY CHANGES.
THE WEEKEND: TAME WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE AT TCL, BHM,
AND EET. MGM AND AUO MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FOG BUT MISS OR GET
MVFR VSBYS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS. SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM, ARRIVING EARLIEST FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND LATER FOR
MGM/AUO.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WONT BE
UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN
AND PROMOTE LOWER AFTERNOON MINRHS (THU-SAT IN THE 30% RANGE).
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5 MPH TODAY, THEN SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY (SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT). SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AND SEASONABLY WARM. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS
FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 59 79 61 / 70 60 30 0
ANNISTON 78 61 80 62 / 70 50 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 77 63 80 64 / 70 60 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 63 83 64 / 70 60 10 0
CALERA 79 62 82 63 / 70 60 20 0
AUBURN 79 63 81 64 / 30 60 10 0
MONTGOMERY 81 63 84 64 / 50 50 10 0
TROY 82 63 84 63 / 30 50 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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