400
FXUS64 KBMX 092321
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO. BRIEF,
MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY. THREATS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AFTER THE SLOW BURN-OFF THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY
WARMING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY RIGHT
NOW. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA BETWEEN 5 TO 6 PM
AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WE ARE
DOING AN AFTERNOON BALLOON LAUNCH TO SEE IF WE CAN BETTER CAPTURE
ON THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS WILL BE A HIGH CAPE, BUT LOW SHEAR EVENT. MORE OF A
TYPICAL MCS EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOOK FOR THE COMPLEX TO
REALLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR THIS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL,
HOWEVER A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND THEN STORM GENERATED
INSTABILITY.
AS THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WORK OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HIGH PRESSURE THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD MERGE WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE,
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP, ALLOWING FOR A LARGE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLOWER TREND, WITH IT LEANING TOWARD GENERALLY A NIGHT-TIME EVENT
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHEAR PROFILES AND WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT,
INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TORNADOES. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING.
A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. THE
COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE 30S FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FORECAST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE CARDS BARRING ANY CHANGES.
CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
BHM/EET/TCL AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 MENTION FOR
AUO/MGM AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE NOT AS GREAT THE FURTHER
SOUTH WE GO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION. WHILE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG WHERE WE SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING. VFR RETURNS
BY MID DAY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WONT BE
UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN
AND PROMOTE LOWER AFTERNOON MINRHS (THU-SAT IN THE 30% RANGE).
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY (SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AND
SEASONABLY WARM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. A
PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 79 61 82 / 80 30 10 10
ANNISTON 61 80 62 83 / 80 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 80 65 82 / 80 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 63 83 64 84 / 60 10 10 20
CALERA 63 82 63 84 / 70 10 10 10
AUBURN 63 82 63 83 / 70 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 63 84 64 85 / 40 10 10 10
TROY 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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