261
FXUS64 KBMX 100601
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
FREEZING NEXT MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WE STILL HAVE A BATCH OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH C AL AT THIS HOUR THAT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO
MOVE ON. HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOMEWHAT LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY FOR TUE WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FAR NRN COUNTIES. OUR UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OF NOTE FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS IN THE WRN US IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS MOVE NEWD
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO W TX BY TONIGHT AND OPEN UP. THIS WILL
CHANGE OUR FLOW INTO AL FROM ZONAL TO SW BY TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE MAIN SHOW FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO
HAVE THE BULK OF IT MOVE THROUGH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE NOW COMING IN DOES SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH WILL BE
VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORM FOR EARLY/MID MARCH. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. (LOW
CHANCE OF SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THU
MORNING) HOWEVER, OVERALL THINKING IS SIMILAR WITH OUR NEXT
CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENOUGH FOR A
CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREAT, WITH A SPIN UP OR TWO AND SOME HAIL NOT TO BE RULED OUT.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH MAINLY SOME LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
TILL THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT FOR THU.
BEYOND THU, LOOK FOR A MAJOR COOL DOWN COMPARED TO OUR READINGS OF
LATE WITH MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE SEASON FROST IN THE NRN
COUNTIES. SAT/SUN HOLD ANOTHER WARM UP AS OUR FLOW TURNS QUICKLY
BACK AROUND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE WANT TO PROGRESS THIS FRONT THROUGH AS
WELL BRINGING THE COLD AIR BACK ONCE AGAIN. THIS TIME, WE COULD
EVEN COLDER READINGS WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR A LATE
SEASON FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AFTER THE SLOW BURN-OFF THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY
WARMING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY RIGHT
NOW. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA BETWEEN 5 TO 6 PM
AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WE ARE
DOING AN AFTERNOON BALLOON LAUNCH TO SEE IF WE CAN BETTER CAPTURE
ON THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS WILL BE A HIGH CAPE, BUT LOW SHEAR EVENT. MORE OF A
TYPICAL MCS EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOOK FOR THE COMPLEX TO
REALLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR THIS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL,
HOWEVER A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND THEN STORM GENERATED
INSTABILITY.
AS THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WORK OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HIGH PRESSURE THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD MERGE WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A LARGE,
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP, ALLOWING FOR A LARGE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLOWER TREND, WITH IT LEANING TOWARD GENERALLY A NIGHT-TIME EVENT
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHEAR PROFILES AND WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT,
INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TORNADOES. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING.
A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. THE
COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE 30S FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FORECAST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SUGGEST PATCHY FROST COULD BE IN THE CARDS BARRING ANY CHANGES.
CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TSRA EPISODE FROM THIS
EVENING. WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME LINGERING TSRA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR BHM/EET/AUO. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TAFS MAINLY
STRATUS. CIGS WILL DO DOWN TO LIFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM 14-16Z GENERALLY. GOING TO VFR WILL
TAKE LONGER FOR SOME, WITH CIGS IMPROVING FROM S TO N FROM 18-23Z.
SHOULD HAVE A BREAK FOR CONVECTION FOR TUE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM TO EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH LATE WED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT
WONT BE UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STRONG FRONT THAT LOWER DEW POINTS
RETURN AND PROMOTE LOWER AFTERNOON MINRHS (THU-SAT IN THE 30%
RANGE). WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY (SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT). TUESDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER WITH ONLY LOW CONVECTION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE AND SEASONABLY WARM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 80 62 81 / 60 30 10 20
ANNISTON 62 81 62 83 / 50 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 64 82 65 81 / 50 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 64 84 64 83 / 40 10 10 30
CALERA 63 83 62 84 / 40 10 10 20
AUBURN 63 82 63 84 / 50 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 64 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10
TROY 64 85 62 85 / 20 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/16
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page