062
FXUS64 KBMX 291729
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VARIOUS STAGES OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE FORECAST TO
START THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-80S BY
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE SE, AS A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE BETTER FORCING GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO STALL SOMEWHERE TO OUR NW, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE EAST COAST.
THIS IS WHERE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS TO SPLIT, AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SOLUTIONS BRING
THE STRONGEST OF THIS SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN FOR OUR REGION. OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THEM NORTH,
RESULTING IN LESS RAIN. THANKFULLY, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH EXACT AMOUNTS
REMAINING TO BE SEEN.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD WILL TAKE ON A BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC TURN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPUTER
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS THAT WORKED THEIR WAY
IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. I DO THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT
WILL STAY IN THE SOUTH (MGM AND AUO), BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TRENDS IN THE OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT MVFR
SHOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO EVERYWHERE, AS I DON'T SEE ANY
EVIDENCE IN THE MODEL DATA TO SUGGEST THERE'S MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY, RANGING IN THE 35-50% RANGE
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY, WITH SURFACE
WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 MPH TODAY. SO WHILE WE ARE NOT MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 77 57 83 / 10 20 0 20
ANNISTON 53 77 58 83 / 10 20 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 56 79 61 83 / 10 20 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 55 81 61 83 / 0 20 0 20
CALERA 54 80 59 83 / 10 20 0 20
AUBURN 55 78 60 83 / 10 10 0 20
MONTGOMERY 55 81 59 85 / 10 10 0 30
TROY 55 81 59 84 / 10 10 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../61/
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