993
FXUS64 KBMX 291837
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- VERY LITTLE RAIN, IF ANY, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. EASTERLY CAD WEDGE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPED TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA TODAY, AND ITS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 18 TO 34 HOURS. JUST ABOVE
THAT, A SOUTHERLY OVERRUNNING FLOW SPREADING EVEN MORE MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF. THE BIG QUESTION THEN IS, IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER FLOW REGIME TO SQUEEZE OUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP? I THINK THE GENERAL 20-30 PERCENT POPS
PROVIDED BY THE NBM IS ADEQUATE TO CAPTURE THIS UNCERTAINTY. EVEN
IF IT DOES DOES RAIN ANYWHERE BEFORE WEDNESDAY, IT CERTAINLY
WON'T BE ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VARIOUS DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA.
AS WE TRANSITION TO THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE
500 MB FLOW SHIFTS BY FINALLY COLLAPSING THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE.
THIS IN TURN ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE 500 MB FLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE COUNTRY ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SOURCE TO BECOME OPEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
A PATTERN THAT ALLOWS RAINMAKING SYSTEMS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
FREQUENT.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD WILL TAKE ON A BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC TURN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPUTER
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS THAT WORKED THEIR WAY
IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. I DO THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT
WILL STAY IN THE SOUTH (MGM AND AUO), BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TRENDS IN THE OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT MVFR
SHOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO EVERYWHERE, AS I DON'T SEE ANY
EVIDENCE IN THE MODEL DATA TO SUGGEST THERE'S MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES, FUELS WILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE WE ARE NOT MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 77 57 83 / 10 20 0 20
ANNISTON 53 77 58 83 / 10 20 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 56 79 61 83 / 10 20 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 55 81 61 83 / 0 20 0 20
CALERA 54 80 59 83 / 10 20 0 20
AUBURN 55 78 60 83 / 10 10 0 20
MONTGOMERY 55 81 59 85 / 10 10 0 30
TROY 55 81 59 84 / 10 10 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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