723
FXUS64 KBMX 292315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- VERY LITTLE RAIN, IF ANY, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. EASTERLY CAD WEDGE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPED TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA TODAY, AND ITS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 18 TO 34 HOURS. JUST ABOVE
THAT, A SOUTHERLY OVERRUNNING FLOW SPREADING EVEN MORE MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF. THE BIG QUESTION THEN IS, IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER FLOW REGIME TO SQUEEZE OUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP? I THINK THE GENERAL 20-30 PERCENT POPS
PROVIDED BY THE NBM IS ADEQUATE TO CAPTURE THIS UNCERTAINTY. EVEN
IF IT DOES DOES RAIN ANYWHERE BEFORE WEDNESDAY, IT CERTAINLY
WON'T BE ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT IN THE VARIOUS DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA.
AS WE TRANSITION TO THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE
500 MB FLOW SHIFTS BY FINALLY COLLAPSING THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE.
THIS IN TURN ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE 500 MB FLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE COUNTRY ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SOURCE TO BECOME OPEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
A PATTERN THAT ALLOWS RAINMAKING SYSTEMS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
FREQUENT.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEPT THE TREND MAINLY
FOR MGM AND AUO, BUT WITH THIS ISSUANCE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO IMPACT THE OTHER SITES AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO VFR AS WE APPROACH 18Z MONDAY.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES, FUELS WILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE WE ARE NOT MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 77 57 83 / 10 20 0 20
ANNISTON 53 77 58 83 / 10 20 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 56 79 61 83 / 10 20 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 55 81 61 83 / 0 20 0 20
CALERA 54 80 59 83 / 10 20 0 20
AUBURN 55 78 60 83 / 10 10 0 20
MONTGOMERY 55 81 59 85 / 10 10 0 30
TROY 55 81 59 84 / 10 10 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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