254
FXUS64 KBMX 300437
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1137 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE "DOMINANT" FEATURE TO START
THE NEW WORKWEEK HERE. BECAUSE OF THIS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE NOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION IS
GETTING COMPRESSED BY A CAD WEDGE TO OUR EAST. EVEN IF LOCATIONS ARE
ABLE TO SEE SOME RAIN, VERY LIMITED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY, AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR EVEN
MORE GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NOW, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST STARTS TO GET TRICKY. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN, GREATLY SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND,
THEY WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AS THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT STAY SANDWICHED TO THE WEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY
GET THE SECONDARY PUSH IT NEEDS TO WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HOPEFULLY FAR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOWING IT THEN.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEPT THE TREND MAINLY
FOR MGM AND AUO, BUT WITH THIS ISSUANCE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO IMPACT THE OTHER SITES AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO VFR AS WE APPROACH 18Z MONDAY.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES, FUELS WILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK, AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 77 57 82 / 0 20 10 20
ANNISTON 54 77 58 82 / 10 20 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 57 79 60 82 / 0 20 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 55 81 60 83 / 0 20 10 30
CALERA 54 80 59 83 / 0 20 10 30
AUBURN 56 78 59 82 / 10 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 56 81 59 85 / 0 10 10 40
TROY 56 81 58 84 / 0 10 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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