110
FXUS64 KBMX 301120
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE "DOMINANT" FEATURE TO START
THE NEW WORKWEEK HERE. BECAUSE OF THIS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE NOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION IS
GETTING COMPRESSED BY A CAD WEDGE TO OUR EAST. EVEN IF LOCATIONS ARE
ABLE TO SEE SOME RAIN, VERY LIMITED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY, AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR EVEN
MORE GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NOW, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST STARTS TO GET TRICKY. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN, GREATLY SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND,
THEY WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AS THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT STAY SANDWICHED TO THE WEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY
GET THE SECONDARY PUSH IT NEEDS TO WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HOPEFULLY FAR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOWING IT THEN.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEING LIFTED OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CEILING
FORECAST REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE, AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AUO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME NEWER
GUIDANCE STARTING TO BACK OFF ON ANY BASES AT OR BELOW 3000FT.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT TIMES, BUT
PROBABILITIES/IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH TCL SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE IN
THIS TAF CYCLE.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES, FUELS WILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK, AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 57 82 59 / 20 10 20 10
ANNISTON 77 58 82 59 / 20 10 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 60 83 62 / 20 10 30 10
CALERA 80 59 83 60 / 20 10 30 10
AUBURN 78 59 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MONTGOMERY 81 59 85 60 / 20 10 40 10
TROY 81 58 84 58 / 20 10 40 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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