296
FXUS64 KBMX 301817
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY LOW RAIN PROBABILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC
WITH S-SE FLOW INTO AL OFF OF THE GULF. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, WEAK RIDGING IS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GULF WITH
ZONAL WEAK FLOW ACROSS AL. THIS FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION ON
TUE INTO WED WITH FURTHER BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE FLOW FOR TUE/WED. WE WILL BEGIN
TO SEE LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH HEATING. THIS WILL GIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO THE LUCKY ONES THAT RECEIVE IT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MARCH AND MODERATE SLOWLY UPWARD THIS WEEK AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE OUT OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG A FRONT ACROSS AL SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, OUR FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SW WITH AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN N OF AL IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GIVE A BETTER FOCUS AND INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR LATER
GUIDANCE RUNS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE "DOMINANT" FEATURE TO START
THE NEW WORKWEEK HERE. BECAUSE OF THIS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE NOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION IS
GETTING COMPRESSED BY A CAD WEDGE TO OUR EAST. EVEN IF LOCATIONS ARE
ABLE TO SEE SOME RAIN, VERY LIMITED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY, AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR EVEN
MORE GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NOW, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST STARTS TO GET TRICKY. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN, GREATLY SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND,
THEY WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AS THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT STAY SANDWICHED TO THE WEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY
GET THE SECONDARY PUSH IT NEEDS TO WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HOPEFULLY FAR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOWING IT THEN.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT LATE AFTER 10-12Z IN THE W AS MOISTURE SWINGS AROUND THE
RIDGE AND IN FROM THE GULF. ATTM ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT TCL/BHM. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR ~16-17Z. LOW PRECIP CHANCES
WITH HEATING OVER THE FORECAST, MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY,
BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES, FUELS WILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THANKFULLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK, AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 82 58 84 / 0 20 10 40
ANNISTON 58 82 60 83 / 0 20 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 60 83 62 84 / 0 20 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 59 83 62 83 / 0 20 10 50
CALERA 58 83 61 84 / 0 20 10 40
AUBURN 60 82 61 83 / 0 20 10 30
MONTGOMERY 58 84 61 84 / 0 20 10 40
TROY 58 83 59 83 / 0 40 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/44/
AVIATION...08
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