326
FXUS64 KBMX 310431
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO SW
FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
ATLANTIC. DURING THIS SAME TIME, A WEAK TROUGH WILL WORK EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES, GREATLY SLOWING IN SPEED AS IT RUNS INTO RESISTANCE
FROM THE RIDGE. SINCE OUR REGION WILL NOT BE LOCATED NEAR ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM, RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE DEEP SURFACE FLOW FROM THE
GULF.
BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, FINALLY PUSHING THIS STALLED TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE IT APPEARS MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA, AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL HAVE WORKED BACK IN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, IT'S STILL NOT GOING TO BE THE GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN WE
NEED, WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION PAST 31/09Z. HERE, MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 31/18Z, BEFORE MIXING OUT BACK INTO VFR
CATEGORY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THEM IN ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
MINRH'S WILL GENERALLY LINGER BETWEEN THE MID-40 TO 50% RANGE. THOSE
NUMBERS WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST, THESE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ISN'T
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THAT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 82 58 84 / 0 20 10 50
ANNISTON 57 82 60 83 / 10 20 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 59 82 62 84 / 10 20 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 59 82 62 83 / 10 30 20 60
CALERA 57 83 61 84 / 10 20 10 50
AUBURN 59 82 62 82 / 0 20 10 50
MONTGOMERY 58 84 61 85 / 10 40 10 50
TROY 57 82 60 84 / 0 40 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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