924
FXUS64 KBMX 310527
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO SW
FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
ATLANTIC. DURING THIS SAME TIME, A WEAK TROUGH WILL WORK EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES, GREATLY SLOWING IN SPEED AS IT RUNS INTO RESISTANCE
FROM THE RIDGE. SINCE OUR REGION WILL NOT BE LOCATED NEAR ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM, RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE DEEP SURFACE FLOW FROM THE
GULF.
BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, FINALLY PUSHING THIS STALLED TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE IT APPEARS MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA, AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL HAVE WORKED BACK IN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, IT'S STILL NOT GOING TO BE THE GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN WE
NEED, WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONDENSES, RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE TOWARDS MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MGM AND TCL.
05
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
MINRH'S WILL GENERALLY LINGER BETWEEN THE MID-40 TO 50% RANGE. THOSE
NUMBERS WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST, THESE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ISN'T
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THAT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 58 84 58 / 20 10 50 10
ANNISTON 82 60 83 60 / 20 10 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 82 62 84 62 / 20 20 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 82 62 83 62 / 30 20 60 10
CALERA 83 61 84 61 / 20 10 50 10
AUBURN 82 62 82 62 / 20 10 50 10
MONTGOMERY 84 61 85 59 / 40 10 50 0
TROY 82 60 84 59 / 40 10 50 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...05
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