356
FXUS64 KBMX 311745
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- VARIABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ACT TO DEFLECT
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS;
HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE WESTERN
PERIMETER OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
A STRONGER TROUGH WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND, SENDING A FRONT OUR WAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BYPASSING US TO
THE NORTH, AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHS ARE JUST SHY OF RECORDS, SEVERAL
OF WHICH WERE SET JUST LAST YEAR.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE VFR FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE MORNING, A MIX OF MVFR-VFR IS FORECAST.
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT MGM-TOI OR VICINITY TODAY
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WE'LL MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SOME
SORT OF TAF INCLUSION WITH THE NEXT CYCLE.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
VARIABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FROM TODAY TO
SATURDAY. A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OFFER A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING CLOSE
TO OR LESS THAN ONE INCH.
MINRHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF UPPER 30 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 5-10
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 59 83 58 / 10 10 40 20
ANNISTON 82 60 83 59 / 20 20 40 30
BIRMINGHAM 82 63 83 62 / 20 10 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 82 62 83 61 / 20 20 50 10
CALERA 83 62 83 60 / 20 20 50 20
AUBURN 82 61 83 62 / 30 20 50 30
MONTGOMERY 84 61 85 59 / 40 20 50 20
TROY 82 60 84 59 / 40 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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