074
FXUS64 KBMX 012313
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE
WEEK, WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OFF THE EAST COAST
WITH THE STATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THAT HIGH AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE AFTERNOON
COVERAGE, SO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN WHAT IS SHOWN. TODAY, WIND
PROFILES ARE LIGHT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, WITH CAPE BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE MORE PULSE-LIKE,
PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN RATES AND GUSTING WINDS. THOUGH THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW, STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTH. A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA, STALLING TO THE WEST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, PUTTING
THE AREA IN A MORE EASTERLY, AND DRIER, LOW LEVEL FLOW. INSTABILITY
AND FORCING SHOULD BE LOWER, WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO, SHOULD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY BE PRESENT.
WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH
DAY, AND RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MOVES EAST, BRINGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR CONSISTENT, THOUGH
DISAGREEABLE, TIMING WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE RAIN BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AND OTHERS SHOWING
RAIN REMAINING ON A MOSTLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE DIFFERENCE WITH ANTICIPATION OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLOWING
PROGRESS, AND SHOW RAIN MOVING INTO THE STATE DURING THE EVENING
SATURDAY, REMAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW, AND COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY/LOW MOVING NORTH, ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. PW VALUES ARE NEAR 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS. EXPECT STORMS,
WITH A SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, AND GUSTING WINDS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT. RAIN TOTALS ARE AVERAGED TO BE AROUND 1-1.5"
ACROSS THE ALMOST TWO DAY, SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, PERIOD. A FEW
HIGHER TOTALS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE TRAINING
STORMS, AND ALSO IN AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE SHEAR AND
FORCING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW
DRAINING AND URBAN AREAS FOR THOSE TRAINING, STRONGER STORMS FOR
ANY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS
LOW AS THE LOW 40S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 TO 3. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN TEMPO AT A FEW OF THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND AND DURING ACTIVITY OVER A TAF SITE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, WITH WEAK WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY,
THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT THE END OF THIS NEXT PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT KMGM DUE TO OBSERVATIONS NOT BEING
TRANSMITTED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE 40% RANGE,
BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COME SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 85 60 84 / 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 60 84 61 83 / 10 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 62 85 64 84 / 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 61 86 63 85 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 61 86 62 85 / 10 10 0 10
AUBURN 62 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 60 86 61 85 / 20 0 0 10
TROY 60 85 60 84 / 20 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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