421
FXUS64 KBMX 020456
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ALABAMA
REMAINING ON THE MOIST WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA,
THAT WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASICALLY OUR SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT IN EARLY SPRING. CAMS HAVE
BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE AFTERNOON COVERAGE, BUT STILL ARE HIGHER
THAN OUR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. IN OTHER WORDS I HAVE RAISED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. BY THIS EVENING A
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST STAYS
IN CONTROL. BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE AND WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF A DRIER AIRMASS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MOVES EAST, BRINGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING AS THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY/LOW MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH, ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT STORMS, WITH A SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, AND GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
RAIN TOTALS ARE AVERAGED TO BE AROUND 1-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY, PERIOD. A FEW HIGHER TOTALS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT HAVE TRAINING STORMS, AND ALSO IN AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE THE SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY SLOW DRAINING AND URBAN AREAS FOR THOSE TRAINING, STRONGER
STORMS FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS
LOW AS THE LOW 40S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WORK WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 TO 3Z. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN TEMPO AT A FEW OF THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND AND DURING ACTIVITY OVER A TAF SITE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, WITH WEAK WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY,
THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT THE END OF THIS NEXT PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT KMGM DUE TO OBSERVATIONS NOT BEING
TRANSMITTED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE 40% RANGE,
BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COME SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 85 61 84 / 20 30 20 10
ANNISTON 60 85 61 84 / 20 30 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 62 85 65 84 / 10 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 86 63 85 / 0 20 10 10
CALERA 60 86 62 85 / 10 30 20 10
AUBURN 62 83 62 82 / 20 20 20 30
MONTGOMERY 60 87 61 85 / 10 30 20 20
TROY 60 85 60 83 / 10 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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