260
FXUS64 KBMX 021139
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ALABAMA
REMAINING ON THE MOIST WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA,
THAT WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASICALLY OUR SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT IN EARLY SPRING. CAMS HAVE
BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE AFTERNOON COVERAGE, BUT STILL ARE HIGHER
THAN OUR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. IN OTHER WORDS I HAVE RAISED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. BY THIS EVENING A
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST STAYS
IN CONTROL. BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE AND WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF A DRIER AIRMASS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MOVES EAST, BRINGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING AS THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY/LOW MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH, ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT STORMS, WITH A SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, AND GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
RAIN TOTALS ARE AVERAGED TO BE AROUND 1-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY, PERIOD. A FEW HIGHER TOTALS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT HAVE TRAINING STORMS, AND ALSO IN AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE THE SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY SLOW DRAINING AND URBAN AREAS FOR THOSE TRAINING, STRONGER
STORMS FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS
LOW AS THE LOW 40S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WORK WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY AT TCL THROUGH 7 AM,
OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING TOWARD
MIDDAY WITH SUFFICIENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO INCLUDE AT BHM, EET,
MGM STARTING AT 21Z AND CONTINUING TO 03/00Z.
05
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE 40% RANGE,
BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COME SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 61 84 60 / 30 20 10 10
ANNISTON 85 61 84 61 / 30 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 85 65 84 64 / 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 86 63 85 63 / 20 10 10 0
CALERA 86 62 85 61 / 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 83 62 82 63 / 20 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 87 61 85 61 / 30 20 20 0
TROY 85 60 83 61 / 30 20 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05
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