053
FXUS64 KBMX 030536
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL GENERATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OVER THE FOLLOWING 12-18
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
MID 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MARCH EASTWARD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OF COLORADO ORIGIN WILL JET NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS SATURDAY
BECOMES SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A LINE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS MS/TN BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SEVERE RISK AREA IS CURRENTLY OUTLINED BY THE
SPC TO COVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AND WEST/NORTHWEST ALABAMA FOR
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY INTO
NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SATURDAY EVENING, THIS LINE IS EXPECTED
TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK BEFORE IT DECAYS AS IT REACHES THE I-65
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 800-1000 J/KG OVER WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. INSTABILITY
WANES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL COUNTIES BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. WITH THE SURFACE LOW WELL
REMOVED TO THE NORTH, IN ONTARIO BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LACK OF
SUPPORT WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A WEAKENING TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THAT ARE
DEALING WITH MORE SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NBM PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR OVER 2" ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
THE EVENT ANY ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOP.
RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
DRASTICALLY LOWER DEW POINTS TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE SEASONAL AS A SURFACE
HIGH WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK, STARTING TO CLIMB AGAIN
BY THURSDAY AS HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
12
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MGM AND AUO BEFORE DAYBREAK,
OTHERWISE ANY DECREASE IN CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE OF A LIMITED
DURATION BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AREAWIDE
BY LATE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM 7-14 KTS GENERALLY. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT MGM AND AUO FROM MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
05
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, REMAIN
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN BY SATURDAY,
LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50%
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS:
APRIL 3:
KBHM: 87/1999
KEET: 87/1999
KTCL: 87/2025
KMGM: 87/2015
APRIL 4:
KBHM: 88/1934
KEET: 86/2023
KANB: 86/9999
KTCL: 88/2025
KMGM: 89/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 61 85 54 / 10 10 50 90
ANNISTON 84 62 84 59 / 10 10 50 90
BIRMINGHAM 85 64 86 58 / 10 10 50 90
TUSCALOOSA 86 64 85 59 / 10 0 60 90
CALERA 85 63 85 60 / 10 10 50 90
AUBURN 83 64 82 63 / 20 20 50 50
MONTGOMERY 85 63 86 64 / 10 10 50 60
TROY 83 63 84 63 / 20 10 50 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...05
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