874
FXUS64 KBMX 031619
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND BECOME MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
- COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A FEW SHOWERS WERE VISIBLE ON THE KBMX RADAR THIS MORNING. WE HAD
VARIOUS REPORTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS TUSCALOOSA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IF WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z KBMX SOUNDING,
THERE IS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND H5 WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE IS COMBINING
WITH A PASSING H5 SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER THESE SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
LULL THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE BRINGS A FEW
BOUTS OF H85-H7 VORTICITY OFF THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WE SEE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STOUT UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE PULLING AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
H5 VORTICITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CAN BE ANALYZED ACROSS THE MIDWEST BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS,
EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR NW AREAS AS THIS
BOUNDARY ARRIVES. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS WORKING IN OUR
FAVOR WITH THESE STORMS:
1. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
2. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LEVEL LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO WE
WON'T HAVE MUCH SUPPORT.
EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM BY THE
TIME THEY GET HERE, THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THAT
SAID, OUR THREAT HAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
UPDATE. THEREFORE, SPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE
FORECAST. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT. SELECT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.
THIS WOULD PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 1- 1.5" ACROSS CENTRAL AL. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
A FEW POCKETS OVER 2", MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS
TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS BUT IT IS
WORTH MONITORING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUR SE COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PERSISTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. WE BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT A FEW SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD BE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM 7-14 KTS
GENERALLY. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
MGM AND AUO FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AMD NOT SKED AT
ALL SITES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO NATIONWIDE OBSERVATION
COMMUNICATION ISSUES SINCE 03/08Z.
05
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, REMAIN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY,
LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE
40-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 30-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS:
APRIL 3:
KBHM: 87/1999
KEET: 87/1999
KTCL: 87/2025
KMGM: 87/2015
APRIL 4:
KBHM: 88/1934
KEET: 86/2023
KANB: 86/9999
KTCL: 88/2025
KMGM: 89/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 60 85 52 / 10 10 50 100
ANNISTON 83 62 84 57 / 10 10 50 90
BIRMINGHAM 85 64 85 56 / 20 0 60 100
TUSCALOOSA 85 63 84 57 / 20 0 70 100
CALERA 85 63 85 57 / 20 0 60 90
AUBURN 82 63 82 63 / 10 20 50 60
MONTGOMERY 85 63 86 62 / 10 10 50 70
TROY 83 62 85 63 / 20 10 50 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...05
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