853
FXUS64 KBMX 040430
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION, MAKING IT TO
ONTARIO DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS MS/TN BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE RISK AREA IS CURRENTLY OUTLINED BY THE SPC TO
COVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA FOR SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 5 PM, A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DECAY AS THE LINE REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG
OVER WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH INSTABILITY WANING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH, THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD 1-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE DEALING WITH
MORE SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN
GENERALLY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED ISSUES MAY DEVELOP.
RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRASTICALLY
LOWER DEW POINTS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE SEASONAL AS A SURFACE HIGH WORKS
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK, STARTING TO CLIMB AGAIN TO THE UPPER
70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE CALLS FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 9Z, AFTER WHICH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, SO TEMPO FROM 11-15Z FOR IFR CIGS AND VIS AT MGM
AND FOR CIGS AT TCL AND EET FROM 12-16Z. A LINE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EVENING, SO ADDED IN SHRA AFTER 21-22Z AT BHM, TCL, AND EET, WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AT TCL AND BHM. MGM AND AUO MAY BE AFFECTED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
12
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY, LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE
30-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 84 54 68 / 10 60 90 60
ANNISTON 62 83 58 69 / 10 50 90 80
BIRMINGHAM 65 85 57 69 / 0 70 90 50
TUSCALOOSA 64 84 58 71 / 0 70 90 20
CALERA 63 84 59 71 / 0 60 90 60
AUBURN 64 81 64 69 / 20 50 90 90
MONTGOMERY 63 86 64 70 / 10 50 90 90
TROY 63 83 64 72 / 10 50 90 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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