819
FXUS64 KBMX 040518
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION, MAKING IT TO
ONTARIO DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS MS/TN BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE RISK AREA IS CURRENTLY OUTLINED BY THE SPC TO
COVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA FOR SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 5 PM, A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DECAY AS THE LINE REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG
OVER WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH INSTABILITY WANING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH, THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD 1-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE DEALING WITH
MORE SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN
GENERALLY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED ISSUES MAY DEVELOP.
RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRASTICALLY
LOWER DEW POINTS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE SEASONAL AS A SURFACE HIGH WORKS
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK, STARTING TO CLIMB AGAIN TO THE UPPER
70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE CALLS FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
12
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST
TERMINALS FALLING INTO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY BY 04/10Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, BEFORE FALLING
ONCE MORE IN THE EVENING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN. MOST
TERMINALS WILL CARRY SHRA, WITH A FEW TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA PAST
05/00Z. ADDITIONAL TSRA PROBS MAY BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z
PACKAGE, AS THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO
SUNDAY AM.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY, LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE
30-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 54 68 41 / 60 90 60 0
ANNISTON 83 58 69 42 / 50 90 80 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 57 69 45 / 70 90 50 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 58 71 46 / 70 90 20 0
CALERA 84 59 71 45 / 60 90 60 0
AUBURN 81 64 69 47 / 50 90 90 10
MONTGOMERY 86 64 70 47 / 50 90 90 10
TROY 83 64 72 47 / 50 90 90 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../44/
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