969
FXUS64 KBMX 041751
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION, MAKING IT TO
ONTARIO DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS MS/TN BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE RISK AREA IS CURRENTLY OUTLINED BY THE SPC TO
COVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA FOR SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 5 PM, A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DECAY AS THE LINE REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG
OVER WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH INSTABILITY WANING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH, THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD 1-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE DEALING WITH
MORE SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN
GENERALLY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED ISSUES MAY DEVELOP.
RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRASTICALLY
LOWER DEW POINTS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE SEASONAL AS A SURFACE HIGH WORKS
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK, STARTING TO CLIMB AGAIN TO THE UPPER
70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE CALLS FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT TCL WHICH SHOULD LIFT
SHORTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
OF A MOIST AIR MASS, AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 AT ALL SITES WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT AUO INITIALLY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW MORNING.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY, LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE
30-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 68 41 70 / 90 70 0 0
ANNISTON 59 69 44 71 / 90 80 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 69 46 70 / 90 70 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 71 46 73 / 100 60 0 0
CALERA 59 72 46 73 / 90 80 0 0
AUBURN 64 72 49 70 / 50 90 10 0
MONTGOMERY 65 72 47 70 / 60 80 10 0
TROY 64 73 48 70 / 30 90 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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