788
FXUS64 KBMX 042347
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
IT'S ANOTHER WARM MAY-LIKE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THESE ARE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AS A CU
FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. HIGHEST HREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES
WITHIN THIS REGIME ARE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR THERE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR. OFF TO OUR WEST, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS SERVING AS AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT IN FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHILE AHEAD OF IT ANOTHER OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE BAND IS TRIGGERING STORMS IN
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS BACK
OVER ARKANSAS.
THE BOUNDARIES OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING SOME TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
MODEST AROUND 20-30KTS, MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MULTICELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS
BY TONIGHT, WITH FORCING AIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH A 30KT
VEERED 850MB JET AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR/LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO, EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE. EXPECT
MAINLY GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SOME WEAKER TREES,
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT CONTINUED RECENT DRYNESS
SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT FLASH FLOODING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND
WEAKEN. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY UPTICK WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDING IN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGHING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EAST COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR IN THE
VICINITY OF MOST TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WHILE A MORE UNIFORM COVERAGE OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED TSRA IS NEARING THE AL/MS STATE LINE. EXPECT
AVIATION IMPACTS TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES INTO CENTRAL AL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, PROMPTING IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FROM PASSES THROUGH AND CLOUDS
CLEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES BY 18Z
AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATER TODAY, LASTING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH
VALUES INTO THE 28-40% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 20FT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 68 41 70 / 90 70 0 0
ANNISTON 59 69 44 71 / 90 80 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 69 46 70 / 90 70 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 71 46 73 / 100 60 0 0
CALERA 59 72 46 73 / 90 80 0 0
AUBURN 64 72 49 70 / 50 90 10 0
MONTGOMERY 65 72 47 70 / 60 80 10 0
TROY 64 73 48 70 / 30 90 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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