824
FXUS64 KBMX 050517
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND A FEW SUB-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WE'VE HAD WAVES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BUT THE MODEST PARAMETER SPACE HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO
PRODUCE INTENSE OR SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL BELOW SEVERE STRENGTH, AND ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL
DIMINISH MORE SO AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DESPITE THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A COVERING OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINE. MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP
AROUND 0.75-1" OF RAIN TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS PERHAPS EVEN UP TO 2", WHILE SOME
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN DUE TO THE
PRECEDING DRY CONDITIONS AND OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL, BUT THOSE LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD
TO PONDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
EXPECT THE RAIN TO END AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MID 70S SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND COOL
NIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN MOVE TO OUR EAST
AND BEGIN TO ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN
THAT, THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH SOME MEASURE OF RIDGING IN PLACE
DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND REDUCED VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO CLEAR AROUND
05/16Z. HERE, LOW CIGS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS WELL, WITH SOME
TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR CATEGORY BY 05/18Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR, WITH ALL TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR CATEGORY BY 06/01Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MINRH RANGING FROM 28-40% FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH
20FT WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 42 70 43 / 60 0 0 0
ANNISTON 69 43 70 44 / 80 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 46 70 47 / 60 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 70 45 71 47 / 50 0 0 0
CALERA 72 45 72 46 / 70 0 0 0
AUBURN 72 48 69 49 / 90 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 72 47 70 46 / 90 0 0 0
TROY 73 48 69 46 / 90 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION.../44/
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