417
FXUS64 KBMX 051816
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY
NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
VIRGA/A SPRINKLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OZARKS WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN COOLER LOWS THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS, THOUGH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A FAIRLY
PLEASANT SPRING TODAY TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.
A BENIGN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN
THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA. A WEAK
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL
REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 1038MB, RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING.
INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE WEDGE WILL KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. TEMPERATURES MAY
TREND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED EASTERLY
WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP ENOUGH WITH SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTS IN SOME NONZERO
BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK UP INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
POST-FRONTAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE STILL PRESENT AT EET/MGM/AUO.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY, LINGERING -SHRA NEAR MGM/AUO WILL
EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CLEARING OCCURS, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING BACK IN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS MAINLY REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH 20FT WIND GUSTS UP TO 15
MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. RH VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE 30-35
PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE EASTERLY 20FT WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 44 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 47 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 47 69 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 48 69 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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