363
FXUS64 KBMX 060440
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL,
SPRING NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SET TO FALL INTO THE 40S. A SUBTLE
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST
TODAY AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, BUT IT WILL BE
A COMFORTABLE DAY AS A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PROMOTES MILD
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5-10 MPH BREEZE WITH
OCCASIONAL 15-18 MPH GUSTS DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A
SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REINFORCE THE
COOL, DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS,
BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL AL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING DRY CONDITIONS AS TALKS OF
WORSENING DROUGHT LIKELY BECOMES A LARGER PART OF THE CONVERSATION.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN
A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SFC WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN
SHIFTING TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY HEADING TOMORROW MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS DURING THE DAY. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE GULF COAST, BUT NO IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF CYCLE.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH 20FT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. RH VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE EASTERLY 20FT
WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 44 68 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 47 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 47 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 47 70 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 49 68 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 48 69 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 49 67 46 76 / 0 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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