816
FXUS64 KBMX 062336
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ALL RAIN WILL BE WELL TO TO SOUTH AS A RESULT, WITH A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PREVAILING BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 15MPH AT TIMES. THE COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES. AS WAS DISCUSSED
OVERNIGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED. ANOTHER DRY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IF WINDS ARE ANY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, WE'LL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAD MEASURABLE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DUE
TO THE CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A STRONG 1039MB SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND
MAINTAIN OUR COOL AND DRY REGIME. AS THE 500MB RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE'LL
SEE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE CAD SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH,
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MOST FOLKS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A 588-591 DECAMETER RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S CERTAINLY APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH ZERO INDICATIONS OF ANY RAINFALL.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. THICK CIRRUS
CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM C
AL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK TUE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. NRLY WINDS
WILL TAPER DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. NE
WINDS 8-13KTS, ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES, WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY TUE WITH MIXING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN TIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
20FT WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND NORTHEAST
BY TUESDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE EASTERLY 20FT WIND GUSTS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS VERY DRY. ANY FIRES COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 45 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 49 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 47 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 49 76 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 46 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 47 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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