408
FXUS64 KBMX 070443
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SATELLITE IS INDICATING A SHARP CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AS UPPER MOISTURE PUSHES EWD TONIGHT. THE SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR
ACROSS C AL BY MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWD AND AWAY
FROM AL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE SE US, WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT EXPECTED AS ANOTHER FRONT
HEADS OUR WAY ON TUE AS A RIDGE CENTER SLIDES SEWD OUT OF C
CANADA/THE DAKOTAS, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ON TUE. THIS WILL REINFORCE OUR DRY AIRMASS, AND NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AS IT SINKS SWD INTO N AL. IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND
FIZZLE OUT AS OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK TUE. IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO STALL OUR RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS WED NIGHT INTO THU.
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE WEAK. LOOK FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT.
AS OF NOW WE HAVE ONLY A VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES FOR WED NIGHT. WITH OUR VERY LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO GREET THIS UPPER WAVE, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY. FOR FRI
ONWARD, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK UPWARD A LITTLE EACH
DAY AS OUR AIRMASS MODERATES WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ON TAP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ALL RAIN WILL BE WELL TO TO SOUTH AS A RESULT, WITH A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PREVAILING BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 15MPH AT TIMES. THE COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES. AS WAS DISCUSSED
OVERNIGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED. ANOTHER DRY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IF WINDS ARE ANY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, WE'LL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAD MEASURABLE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DUE
TO THE CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A STRONG 1039MB SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND
MAINTAIN OUR COOL AND DRY REGIME. AS THE 500MB RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE'LL
SEE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE CAD SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH,
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MOST FOLKS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A 588-591 DECAMETER RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S CERTAINLY APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH ZERO INDICATIONS OF ANY RAINFALL.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. THICK
CIRRUS CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EWD AND AWAY
FROM C AL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK TUE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. NRLY
WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE.
NE WINDS 8-13KTS, ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES, WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY TUE WITH MIXING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN TIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20FT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 17 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. RH VALUES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
EASTERLY 20FT WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, HIGHEST
GUSTS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
FUELS VERY DRY. ANY FIRES COULD SPREAD QUICKLY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 45 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 47 76 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 47 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 75 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 48 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 77 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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