903
FXUS64 KBMX 072349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A STRONG 1036MB SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A BROAD REGION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, AND PROMOTING MILD
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS VERY DRY,
AND WE'VE SEEN DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN RAPIDLY SO FAR TODAY. AS A
RESULT, FORECAST VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING SET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO WIND
GUSTS OF 15-18 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, LIKELY TO
OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IF THE WINDS WERE A BIT HIGHER AS WE
ALREADY HAVE A COUPLE SITES REPORTING RH VALUES NEAR 25%. HREF
PROBS INDICATE LOWER CHANCES OF RHS FALLING BELOW 25% TOMORROW,
BUT BASED ON TRENDS TODAY, I STILL UTILIZED FORECAST VALUES ON THE
LOWER END OF THE PERCENTILES.
BEYOND THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE OF BRIEF SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTH, AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. CERTAINLY NOT A FEATURE THAT WILL SLOW DOWN
THE INCREASE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY VARYING LEVELS OF RIDGING WHICH LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 80S FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. CIRRUS
CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS C AL
OVERNIGHT. NE-ENE GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN SOME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. ERLY WINDS
8-15KTS, ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES, WILL COMMENCE DURING
THE DAY WED WITH MIXING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
TIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP
INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20FT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 17 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. RH VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE EASTERLY 20FT
WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS VERY DRY.
ANY FIRES COULD SPREAD QUICKLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 48 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 52 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 50 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 71 48 73 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 51 75 48 76 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 51 73 48 75 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...08
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