459
FXUS64 KBMX 081752
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE STATE IN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS FLOW, AND RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS
WILL BE BRISK TODAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH WINDS OVER THE STATE, AND AROUND THIS HIGH, TRANSITION TO A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MOISTURE,
WITH RH VALUES FALLING EVEN LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A LACK
OF ANY JET STREAK, WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK IF NOT CALM IN MANY
PLACES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THANKS
TO THE LOWERED RH VALUES, THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE AROUND THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NOW, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND LOWERED RH VALUES NOT
LINING UP EXACTLY FOR A PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
RH VALUES AND WIND AND IF CONDITIONS CHANGE A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS, FIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGH WITH DRY
FUELS, BRISK WINDS, AND LOW RH VALUES.
BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY BE ADVECTED INTO THE STATE.
AT THE SAME TIME, SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TRAILING FRONTS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HOLDING ON TO
THAT HIGH KEEPING EACH BOUNDARY AND MOST OF THE FORCING TO THE
WEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIMITING MUCH RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MENTIONING ANY RAIN TOTALS
WITH MUCH ENTHUSIASM AT THE MOMENT.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK MID
LEVEL JET AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US, WILL CAUSE GUSTING WINDS AT TIMES TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
24
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20
TO LOWER 30S TODAY, WITH SIMILAR VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW AREAS IN
LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY. EASTERLY 20FT WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-20 MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS,
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS VERY DRY. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT
ARE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 51 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 49 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 73 50 78 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 51 77 50 80 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 51 76 51 79 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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