640
FXUS64 KBMX 090447
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1147 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND ELEVATED WINDS,
BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IS INDICATING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NE HALF OF AL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOW-MID LEVELS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE. THERE ARE LOW TO MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR SE AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE,
BUT MOISTURE IS UNFORTUNATELY MORE LIMITED AS YOU GET TO OUR SERN
C AL COUNTIES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS C AL, WITH AN ERLY FLOW INTO C AL AS THE
RIDGE CENTER IS MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND BEING PUSHED EWD
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. IT IS EXPECTED
TO DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THU MORNING. UPPER
FLOW WILL BE BECOMING MORE ZONAL ON THU AND WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE
TO ASSISTING THE FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE SE US WITH IT LIKELY
LOSING ENERGY ACROSS ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND OVER KY/NC. ERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND CENTERED RIDGE TAKING OVER. AS WE MOVE INTO
MON, THAT RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES SE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE SRLY
FLOW INTO AL OFF OF THE GULF COMMENCING. AT THE SAME TIME OVER
THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE WRN US COAST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SW
INTO C AL IN RESPONSE. A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
HOPEFULLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE STATE IN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS FLOW, AND RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS
WILL BE BRISK TODAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH WINDS OVER THE STATE, AND AROUND THIS HIGH, TRANSITION TO A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MOISTURE,
WITH RH VALUES FALLING EVEN LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A LACK
OF ANY JET STREAK, WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK IF NOT CALM IN MANY
PLACES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THANKS
TO THE LOWERED RH VALUES, THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE AROUND THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NOW, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND LOWERED RH VALUES NOT
LINING UP EXACTLY FOR A PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
RH VALUES AND WIND AND IF CONDITIONS CHANGE A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS, FIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGH WITH DRY
FUELS, BRISK WINDS, AND LOW RH VALUES.
BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY BE ADVECTED INTO THE STATE.
AT THE SAME TIME, SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TRAILING FRONTS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HOLDING ON TO
THAT HIGH KEEPING EACH BOUNDARY AND MOST OF THE FORCING TO THE
WEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIMITING MUCH RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MENTIONING ANY RAIN TOTALS
WITH MUCH ENTHUSIASM AT THE MOMENT.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY AND WILL PROGRESS EWD
INTO GA OVERNIGHT. E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LIGHTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS DURING THE
DAY WITH MIXING.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20
TO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. EASTERLY
20FT WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 12-17 MPH FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS VERY DRY. ANY FIRES COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 74 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 51 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 49 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 49 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 51 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 51 77 51 80 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/24
AVIATION...08
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