415
FXUS64 KBMX 270324
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST. A MID
LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING
ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE JET, WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TN RIVER VALLEY, MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY LATER, WITH THE
EARLY MORNING TIMING. EITHER WAY, INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT DECENT
ENOUGH THAT COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR, COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORM WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
INTO THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
MORE STORMS, MAINLY TO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SHEAR
WILL BE HIGH, AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN CAUSE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
THOUGH WITH THE SHEAR PRESENT, WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO COUNT OUT ANY
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT WITH
TIMING, WITH A LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TIMING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AND BEFORE SUNRISE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND ANY FORCING.
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE IS SOME SHEAR
PRESENT, THE INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. WOULD EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
BY THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE TN RIVER VALLEY, AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
AROUND THAT TROUGH BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE STATE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW BRINGING GUSTING WINDS TO EACH TAF
SITE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY AWAY
FROM ANY TAF SITE, HAVE NO MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
THROUGH MONDAY.
AMD NOT SKED AT KTCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT COMMS ISSUES.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
24
FIRE WEATHER
DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 50% THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MINRH VALUES WILL DROP AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THANKFULLY, ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL, BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN WITH ONGOING RAIN CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 83 59 83 / 0 0 50 70
ANNISTON 59 82 60 82 / 0 0 40 60
BIRMINGHAM 61 84 64 83 / 0 10 50 70
TUSCALOOSA 62 87 65 85 / 0 10 50 70
CALERA 60 86 63 85 / 0 10 40 60
AUBURN 62 81 60 83 / 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 61 87 63 87 / 0 0 10 20
TROY 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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