886
FXUS64 KBMX 272341
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES.
- LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WEDGE
EFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REFLECT THIS INFLUENCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WEST AND IN THE MID 70S EAST.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ALONG WITH EXPECTED ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, THEN EXPAND EASTWARD AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL RISK FROM SEVERE STORMS.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND DECREASE IN EXTENT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOW QUICKLY THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA WILL AFFECT HOW
QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATER IN
THE DAY FOR THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION INITIALLY AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES EXPECTED. WHILE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND DYNAMICS
ARE PROGGED, THE AMOUNT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AFTER TUESDAY MORNING'S ACTIVITY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL RISK WITH
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL.
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH BROAD
AND RATHER FLAT RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH USHERING IN LOWER HUMIDITY WITH A TEMPERATURE DROP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELING DISAGREES IN THE POSITION OF FEATURES
LATER THIS WEEK, BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL IS PRESENT WITH A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AND WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AS THE
REMNANTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WORK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SHRA
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 28/03Z, WITH LOW CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE PAST
28/18Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE IT IN ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50 PERCENT
WEST TO THE MID 40 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE AREAWIDE THURSDAY BEFORE THE
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 80 60 81 / 50 70 90 80
ANNISTON 60 81 63 81 / 40 60 90 70
BIRMINGHAM 64 82 65 81 / 50 70 90 80
TUSCALOOSA 65 84 64 84 / 50 70 90 70
CALERA 63 84 63 84 / 40 60 90 70
AUBURN 61 82 65 83 / 10 30 70 50
MONTGOMERY 63 86 66 86 / 10 40 60 40
TROY 61 86 64 87 / 0 30 50 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION.../44/
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