030
FXUS64 KBMX 280458
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT, AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SNEAK INTO THE REGION BY THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED DECAYING AS TIME GOES ON. FROM HERE, GENERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTS
TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE ARKLATEX. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED HERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING, WITH
THESE STORMS SLIDING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS A NARROW WINDOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SINGULAR STORM MODES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HERE. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER, WITH THE BULK OF OUR THREAT COMING FROM THIS AS IT
WORKS INTO THE REGION.
DURING THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIP
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, SLOWING THE COLD FRONT'S PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THURSDAY,
AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER-70S, BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-60S ON FRIDAY. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE THIS WEEKEND, WHEN A DEEP TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
SOUTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH, THIS WILL BE
THE PERFECT CATALYST FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST SETUP FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AS THE
REMNANTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WORK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SHRA
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 28/03Z, WITH LOW CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE PAST
28/18Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE IT IN ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AS MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THAT, THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY DROP RIGHT BACK
INTO THE UPPER-30 AND LOW-40% RANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 81 60 80 / 60 70 90 80
ANNISTON 60 80 62 80 / 50 60 90 70
BIRMINGHAM 65 82 64 81 / 60 70 90 80
TUSCALOOSA 65 83 64 83 / 50 80 90 70
CALERA 63 83 64 84 / 50 70 90 70
AUBURN 62 82 66 84 / 20 50 80 40
MONTGOMERY 64 86 66 87 / 10 50 70 40
TROY 62 86 64 87 / 0 30 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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