269
FXUS64 KBMX 280537
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT, AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SNEAK INTO THE REGION BY THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED DECAYING AS TIME GOES ON. FROM HERE, GENERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTS
TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE ARKLATEX. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED HERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING, WITH
THESE STORMS SLIDING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS A NARROW WINDOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SINGULAR STORM MODES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HERE. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER, WITH THE BULK OF OUR THREAT COMING FROM THIS AS IT
WORKS INTO THE REGION.
DURING THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIP
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, SLOWING THE COLD FRONT'S PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THURSDAY,
AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER-70S, BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-60S ON FRIDAY. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE THIS WEEKEND, WHEN A DEEP TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
SOUTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH, THIS WILL BE
THE PERFECT CATALYST FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST SETUP FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 10Z AS THE
OUTFLOW FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AL. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS,
BUT I'M NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THE TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR TO IFR) INTO
THE REGION THROUGH ROUGHLY 14-17Z BEFORE CIGS INCREASE BACK TO
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. I'VE INCLUDED
TSRA IN THE PROB30 FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-06Z FOR
MOST TAF SITES. THE QUESTION ON EXACT TERMINAL IMPACTS WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY SETS UP. IF
IT CAN MANAGE TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, THERE'S SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE EVENING ACTIVITY WILL STAY ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OR SOUTH
OF IT, LIMITING THE TSRA IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN SITES. HOWEVER,
OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES, SO THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AS MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THAT, THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY DROP RIGHT BACK
INTO THE UPPER-30 AND LOW-40% RANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 60 80 52 / 70 90 80 30
ANNISTON 80 62 80 54 / 60 90 70 40
BIRMINGHAM 82 64 81 57 / 70 90 80 40
TUSCALOOSA 83 64 83 57 / 80 90 70 50
CALERA 83 64 84 57 / 70 90 70 50
AUBURN 82 66 84 62 / 50 80 40 60
MONTGOMERY 86 66 87 62 / 50 70 40 60
TROY 86 64 87 62 / 30 60 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page