460
FXUS64 KBMX 281745
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2 TO 3 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
OUR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT CAMS HINT
AT CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WOULD HELP
LIMIT OUR SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
HAVE AS MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND HEAD OUR WAY. THE EXACT PATH OF THIS
CLUSTER WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S
STORMS SETS UP. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2 TO
3 OUT OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE HYDRO SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FULLY SATURATED
PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RRFS-A HINT AT A
FEW POCKETS OF 3-5" OF RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
EXIT THE AREA BY 06Z-07Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS A H5 SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MAIN THREATS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WE DRY OUT A BIT
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL HELP TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LASTLY, TO TOUCH ON TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A COUPLE WARM DAYS LEFT
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST. WE BEGIN TO COOL DOWN NICELY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S. IT WILL EVEN BE A
LITTLE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS
WON'T LAST TOO LONG AS WE BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH ANY PASSING
SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. I'VE CONTINUED WITH TSRA IN
THE PROB30 FROM 00Z-06Z FOR BHM/EET/TCL AND 02Z-08Z FOR AUO/MGM.
-RA WILL LINGER BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE, THROUGH
ROUGHLY 12Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ON
THURSDAY WILL DROP RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. RHS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE
FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 81 52 73 / 100 50 50 10
ANNISTON 62 82 56 75 / 90 50 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 64 82 57 73 / 100 50 60 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 83 57 76 / 90 50 70 20
CALERA 64 84 57 77 / 90 30 70 20
AUBURN 66 84 61 77 / 80 30 70 30
MONTGOMERY 65 87 62 78 / 80 40 80 30
TROY 64 88 62 79 / 60 30 70 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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