230
FXUS64 KBMX 291812
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5) REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING,
BRINGING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, WITH ONLY A MEAGER AMOUNT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THOUGH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE GREATEST FORCING. THOUGH STORMS MAY MOVE
INTO THE STATE STRONG TO SEVERE, THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST, AS STORMS ENCOUNTER COOLER AIR AND LESS INSTABILITY. THE
ONLY DRIVING FACTOR TO KEEP STORMS STRONG WOULD BE THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SEVERAL CAMS ARE HOLDING ON
TO STORMS REMAINING THROUGH THE MID MORNING, SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. IN THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE, AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT, AS
THAT BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE STATE.
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS A
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE NEXT RAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LOW, THOUGH A
MID LEVEL JET WITH BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE, HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT C
AL TAF SITES. MORE SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD AFTER 21Z IN THE W AND SPREADING ACROSS C AL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AND ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THIS
OCCURS, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. IFR
CIGS MAY OCCUR IN ADDITION AFTER 6Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES WITH NRLY
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: THE FINAL SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN WAS
ISSUED AT 18Z. THIS SEASONAL TAF WILL RETURN IN THE FALL.
08
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY WILL DROP
RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE BY THURSDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 72 47 69 / 60 10 10 20
ANNISTON 56 73 50 70 / 70 20 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 56 72 52 69 / 80 20 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 56 74 52 70 / 80 20 10 50
CALERA 56 75 52 71 / 80 30 10 40
AUBURN 61 74 55 69 / 90 30 10 40
MONTGOMERY 61 75 54 66 / 90 30 20 50
TROY 61 76 54 68 / 90 40 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...08
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