084
FXUS64 KBMX 301114
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
- A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS
SOUTH TO OVER THE DEEP SOUTH REGION AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,
WITH HEAVY ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT AFFECTS OUR EAST-
CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AGAIN, BUT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY STEEPENING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS A FEW SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER SPEED MAXES AT JET LEVEL.
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVERNIGHT WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING
WHILE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RAPIDLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DECELERATE WITH TIME AND STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NATURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS, BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THOUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE 40S SUNDAY MORNING AREAWIDE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS NEAR 70 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
05
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS LED TO CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING
RAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. THEREFORE, THERE'S A LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 30%) THAT A FEW SITES COULD STILL SEE IMPACTS
OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, ESPECIALLY MGM AND
AUO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA IF IT'S NOT ALREADY AT VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000FT. AS THE
FRONT IS ALONG OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AT 8-10KTS.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATER
IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
REBOUNDING AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 48 70 47 / 10 10 10 80
ANNISTON 73 50 70 49 / 10 20 20 80
BIRMINGHAM 72 53 70 50 / 10 20 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 74 53 70 50 / 10 30 40 80
CALERA 76 52 71 50 / 20 30 40 90
AUBURN 75 56 68 53 / 40 30 40 100
MONTGOMERY 76 55 67 52 / 50 30 60 100
TROY 76 54 67 51 / 60 30 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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