612
FXUS64 KBMX 301838
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
138 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS
SOUTH TO OVER THE DEEP SOUTH REGION AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,
WITH HEAVY ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT AFFECTS OUR EAST-
CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AGAIN, BUT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY STEEPENING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS A FEW SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER SPEED MAXES AT JET LEVEL.
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVERNIGHT WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING
WHILE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RAPIDLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DECELERATE WITH TIME AND STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NATURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS, BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THOUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE 40S SUNDAY MORNING AREAWIDE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS NEAR 70 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
05
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MGM AND
AUO, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR C AL TAF
SITES. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHRA ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR MGM AND AUO.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, NRLY WINDS 5-10KTS WITH DAYTIME MIXING ARE EXPECTED.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
REBOUNDING AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 71 46 66 / 10 20 80 40
ANNISTON 50 71 49 64 / 10 20 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 52 69 50 66 / 10 20 90 30
TUSCALOOSA 52 69 49 68 / 20 50 90 30
CALERA 52 71 49 67 / 20 40 100 40
AUBURN 57 69 53 64 / 30 60 100 70
MONTGOMERY 56 69 51 67 / 40 70 100 60
TROY 55 69 51 66 / 40 70 100 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08
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