208
FXUS64 KBMX 301954
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SC SWWD ACROSS SE
GA AND BACK TOWARD THE AL, MS, LA, AND SE TX GULF COASTS. EXCEPT
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCRAPING OUR
SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, C AL WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW JUST OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ZONAL
FLOW INTO AL. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THE ONTARIO LOW WILL SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD INTO QUEBEC. AS IT DOES SO, THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA
WILL PUSH EWD, OPEN UP, AND WEAKEN. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW INTO AL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AL.
SHORTWAVE INDUCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF AL DURING THE DAY ON FRI WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
THE ACTIVITY BEING WIDESPREAD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH RAIN-FREE AND
PLEASANT SPRING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
OUR AIRMASS MODERATES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUE INTO WED WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MGM AND
AUO, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR C AL TAF
SITES. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHRA ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR MGM AND AUO.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, NRLY WINDS 5-10KTS WITH DAYTIME MIXING ARE EXPECTED.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
REBOUNDING AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 71 46 66 / 10 20 80 40
ANNISTON 50 71 49 64 / 10 20 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 52 69 50 66 / 10 20 90 30
TUSCALOOSA 52 69 49 68 / 20 50 90 30
CALERA 52 71 49 67 / 20 40 100 40
AUBURN 57 69 53 64 / 30 60 100 70
MONTGOMERY 56 69 51 67 / 40 70 100 60
TROY 55 69 51 66 / 40 70 100 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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