131
FXUS64 KBMX 010529
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL SOUTH.
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST,
RESULTING IN SHOWERS BEING MOST LIKELY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MGM AND AUO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
TEMPORARILY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. GIVEN
THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE RAIN, THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR
CRITERIA. NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THE PERIOD AS ANY RAIN
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE PERIOD, A SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN. THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70%) FOR RAIN TO IMPACT ALL SITES AS WE
APPROACH 06Z. MGM AND AUO WILL SEE THE RAIN MOVE IN FIRST (AS
EARLY AS 00Z) AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AL BY 03-06Z AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL DROP MOST SITES TO IFR CEILINGS AT SOME POINT AS WE APPROACH
06Z. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30%) FOR A FEW SITES TO DROP
TO LIFR IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE LIFR IN ANY TAFS AT THIS POINT.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 47 67 40 / 20 80 30 0
ANNISTON 70 48 66 42 / 30 90 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 50 67 45 / 40 90 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 49 70 44 / 60 90 20 0
CALERA 70 49 69 44 / 50 90 30 0
AUBURN 69 52 66 46 / 70 100 70 0
MONTGOMERY 67 51 68 43 / 80 100 50 0
TROY 67 50 67 43 / 80 100 60 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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