100
FXUS64 KBMX 152321
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
IN THE SHORT TERM, A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS
LARGELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF, PRODUCING ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIFT INTO FAR EASTERN ALABAMA FROM GEORGIA.
FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TRANSITIONS FROM LARGELY ZONAL TO HAVING A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TROUGH THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH, SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABLE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO AT LEAST CLIMO LEVEL
POPS ON TUESDAY (AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT), AND MORE SIGNIFICANT POPS
(HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY) BY WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY, WE'LL NOTE SPC'S SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, AND THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS ON PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THAT TIME.
WHILE THERE IS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR THOSE
DAYS YET, IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH IN THE COMING
MODEL RUNS.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OFFERING
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY, MINRH WILL AGAIN REACH AN UPPER 20 TO LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE THOUGH WINDS WON'T BE AS GUSTY AS THURSDAY,
AVERAGING NEAR 5 MPH FROM A SOUTHERLY HEADING. NO LOW RH CONCERNS
ARE NOTED THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK AS DEW POINTS RISE ON A
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. FAIR WEATHER/RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 54 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 59 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 56 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 55 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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