969
FXUS64 KBMX 170340
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING PAINTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PICTURE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THERE IS A LOW (15-25%)
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS
DEWPOINTS NARROW OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AROUND
5MB SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. A ~20 KNOT LLJ WILL
HELP USHER A PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TOMORROW. THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND A FEW PASSING
SHORTWAVES WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID, MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
WE SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO CONTINUED LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
LASTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY MID WEEK WILL KNOCK ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF
OUR HIGHS WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES FOR AUO/BHM/EET.
NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 89 62 88 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 61 88 64 87 / 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 60 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 20
AUBURN 66 89 66 88 / 0 20 10 20
MONTGOMERY 63 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 30
TROY 63 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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